Using healthcare systems data for outcomes in clinical trials: issues to consider at the design stage.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare system data (HSD) are increasingly used in clinical trials, augmenting or replacing traditional methods of collecting outcome data. This study, PRIMORANT, set out to identify, in the UK context, issues to be considered before the decision to use HSD for outcome data in a clinical trial is finalised, a methodological question prioritised by the clinical trials community. METHODS: The PRIMORANT study had three phases. First, an initial workshop was held to scope the issues faced by trialists when considering whether to use HSDs for trial outcomes. Second, a consultation exercise was undertaken with clinical trials unit (CTU) staff, trialists, methodologists, clinicians, funding panels and data providers. Third, a final discussion workshop was held, at which the results of the consultation were fed back, case studies presented, and issues considered in small breakout groups. RESULTS: Key topics included in the consultation process were the validity of outcome data, timeliness of data capture, internal pilots, data-sharing, practical issues, and decision-making. A majority of consultation respondents (n = 78, 95%) considered the development of guidance for trialists to be feasible. Guidance was developed following the discussion workshop, for the five broad areas of terminology, feasibility, internal pilots, onward data sharing, and data archiving. CONCLUSIONS: We provide guidance to inform decisions about whether or not to use HSDs for outcomes, and if so, to assist trialists in working with registries and other HSD providers to improve the design and delivery of trials.

Pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions to prevent delirium after cardiac surgery: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Delirium is a syndrome characterised by a disturbance in attention, awareness and cognition as a result of another physical condition. It occurs in up to 50% of patients after cardiac surgery and is associated with increased mortality, prolonged intensive care and hospital stay and long-term cognitive dysfunction. Identifying effective preventive interventions is important. We will therefore conduct a systematic review to identify all randomised controlled studies that have tested a pharmacological or non-pharmacological intervention to prevent delirium. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will search electronic databases (CDSR (Reviews), CENTRAL (Trials), MEDLINE Ovid, Embase Ovid, PsycINFO Ovid) as well as trial registers (clinicaltrials.gov and ISCRTN) for randomised controlled trials of both pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions designed to prevent delirium after cardiac surgery in adults. Screening of search results and data extraction from included articles will be performed by two independent reviewers using Rayyan. The primary outcome will be the incidence of delirium. Secondary outcomes include: duration of postoperative delirium, all-cause mortality, length of postoperative hospital and intensive care stay, postoperative neurological complications other than delirium, health-related quality of life and intervention-specific adverse events. Studies will be assessed for risk of bias using the Cochrane RoB2 tool. A narrative synthesis of all included studies will be presented and meta-analysis (if appropriate network meta-analysis) will be undertaken where there are sufficient studies (three or more) for pooling results. Results will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval is required. This review will be disseminated via peer-reviewed manuscript and conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022369068.

Sex-Based Differences in Early Outcomes Following Mitral Valve Surgery for Degenerative Disease.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether sex-based differences exist following surgery for degenerative mitral valve disease. METHODS: Using a national database, we analysed data on mitral valve surgery for degenerative disease (n = 22,658) between January 2000 and March 2019 in the UK. We split the cohort into men (n = 14,681) and women (n = 7977) and compared background characteristics, intraoperative variables and early postoperative outcomes. Our primary outcome was hospital mortality; secondary outcomes included re-exploration for bleeding, prolonged admission (>10 days) and mitral replacement. We used binary logistic regression models for all outcomes, with multiplicative interaction terms to determine the nature of any differences. RESULTS: Women presented older (70 ± 11 years vs. 67 ± 11 years, p < 0.001) with worse symptom profiles (New York Heart Association Class III-IV 57% vs. 44%, p < 0.001). They had higher rates of preoperative atrial fibrillation (39% vs. 35%, p < 0.001) and tricuspid disease requiring surgery (21% vs. 15%, p < 0.001). They had lower repair rates (66% vs. 76%, p < 0.001), higher mortality (3% vs. 2%, p < 0.001) and were more likely to have a prolonged admission (48% vs. 40%, p < 0.001). Female sex was an independent predictor of mortality (odds ratio (OR): 1.52, 95% CI: 1.21-1.90, p < 0.001). Age and Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) score showed significant interactions with sex. The relationship between advancing age and mortality was found to be more pronounced in women. CONCLUSIONS: (1) Female sex is an independent predictor of hospital mortality, prolonged hospital admission and mitral valve replacement. (2) The relationship between female sex and mortality is exacerbated by worsening CCS score and advancing age. (3) Women have significantly lower repair rates.

Does previous asbestos exposure increase the risk of a post coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) pleural effusion - a routine data study?

BACKGROUND: Development of pleural effusion (PE) following CABG is common. Post-CABG PE are divided into early- (within 30 days of surgery) and delayed-onset (30 days-1 year) which are likely due to distinct pathological processes. Some experts suggest asbestos exposure may confer an independent risk for late-onset post-CABG PE, however no large studies have explored this potential association. RESEARCH QUESTION: To explore possible association between asbestos exposure and post-CABG PE using routine data. METHODS: All patients who underwent CABG 01/04/2013-31/03/2018 were identified from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) Database. This England-wide population was evaluated for evidence of asbestos exposure, pleural plaques or asbestosis and a diagnosis of PE or PE-related procedure from 30 days to 1 year post-CABG. Patients with evidence of PE three months prior to CABG were excluded, as were patients with a new mesothelioma diagnosis. RESULTS: 68,150 patients were identified, of whom 1,003 (1%) were asbestos exposed and 2,377 (3%) developed late-onset PE. After adjusting for demographic data, Index of Multiple Deprivation and Charlson Co-morbidity Index, asbestos exposed patients had increased odds of PE diagnosis or related procedure such as thoracentesis or drainage (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.03-1.76, p = 0.04). In those with evidence of PE requiring procedure alone, the adjusted OR was 1.66 (95% CI 1.14-2.40, p = 0.01). Additional subgroup analysis of the 518 patients coded for pleural plaques and asbestosis alone revealed an adjusted OR of post-CABG PE requiring a procedure of 2.16 (95% CI 1.38-3.37, p = 0.002). INTERPRETATION: This large-scale study demonstrates prior asbestos exposure is associated with modestly increased risk of post-CABG PE development. The risk association appears higher in patients with assigned clinical codes indicative of radiological evidence of asbestos exposure (pleural plaques or asbestosis). This association may fit with a possible inflammatory co-pathogenesis, with asbestos exposure 'priming' the pleura resulting in greater propensity for PE evolution following the physiological insult of CABG surgery. Further work, including prospective studies and clinicopathological correlation are suggested to explore this further.

Bleeding risk in patients prescribed dual antiplatelet therapy and triple therapy after coronary interventions: the ADAPTT retrospective population-based cohort studies.

Background: Bleeding among populations undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting and among conservatively managed patients with acute coronary syndrome exposed to different dual antiplatelet therapy and triple therapy (i.e. dual antiplatelet therapy plus an anticoagulant) has not been previously quantified. Objectives: The objectives were to estimate hazard ratios for bleeding for different antiplatelet and triple therapy regimens, estimate resources and the associated costs of treating bleeding events, and to extend existing economic models of the cost-effectiveness of dual antiplatelet therapy. Design: The study was designed as three retrospective population-based cohort studies emulating target randomised controlled trials. Setting: The study was set in primary and secondary care in England from 2010 to 2017. Participants: Participants were patients aged ≥ 18 years undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting or emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (for acute coronary syndrome), or conservatively managed patients with acute coronary syndrome. Data sources: Data were sourced from linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics. Interventions: Coronary artery bypass grafting and conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome: aspirin (reference) compared with aspirin and clopidogrel. Percutaneous coronary intervention: aspirin and clopidogrel (reference) compared with aspirin and prasugrel (ST elevation myocardial infarction only) or aspirin and ticagrelor. Main outcome measures: Primary outcome: any bleeding events up to 12 months after the index event. Secondary outcomes: major or minor bleeding, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, mortality from bleeding, myocardial infarction, stroke, additional coronary intervention and major adverse cardiovascular events. Results: The incidence of any bleeding was 5% among coronary artery bypass graft patients, 10% among conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients and 9% among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients, compared with 18% among patients prescribed triple therapy. Among coronary artery bypass grafting and conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients, dual antiplatelet therapy, compared with aspirin, increased the hazards of any bleeding (coronary artery bypass grafting: hazard ratio 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.69; conservatively-managed acute coronary syndrome: hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.57) and major adverse cardiovascular events (coronary artery bypass grafting: hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 3.46; conservatively-managed acute coronary syndrome: hazard ratio 1.57, 95% confidence interval 1.38 to 1.78). Among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients, dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor, compared with dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, increased the hazard of any bleeding (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.82), but did not reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.27). Among ST elevation myocardial infarction percutaneous coronary intervention patients, dual antiplatelet therapy with prasugrel, compared with dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, increased the hazard of any bleeding (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.12), but did not reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.51). Health-care costs in the first year did not differ between dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel and aspirin monotherapy among either coronary artery bypass grafting patients (mean difference £94, 95% confidence interval -£155 to £763) or conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients (mean difference £610, 95% confidence interval -£626 to £1516), but among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients were higher for those receiving dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor than for those receiving dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, although for only patients on concurrent proton pump inhibitors (mean difference £1145, 95% confidence interval £269 to £2195). Conclusions: This study suggests that more potent dual antiplatelet therapy may increase the risk of bleeding without reducing the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events. These results should be carefully considered by clinicians and decision-makers alongside randomised controlled trial evidence when making recommendations about dual antiplatelet therapy. Limitations: The estimates for bleeding and major adverse cardiovascular events may be biased from unmeasured confounding and the exclusion of an eligible subgroup of patients who could not be assigned an intervention. Because of these limitations, a formal cost-effectiveness analysis could not be conducted. Future work: Future work should explore the feasibility of using other UK data sets of routinely collected data, less susceptible to bias, to estimate the benefit and harm of antiplatelet interventions. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN76607611. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

People who have a heart attack are treated with a stent to open up the blocked artery that caused the heart attack, with surgery to bypass the blocked artery or with medication only. Whatever the treatment, they are prescribed one or more antiplatelet drugs, either aspirin only or aspirin and an additional antiplatelet (clopidogrel, prasugrel or ticagrelor), for 12 months after the heart attack. Antiplatelets are given to prevent another heart attack, but increase the risk of bleeding. We used a large general practice database and a database describing patients' attendances and admissions to hospital to determine how many people bleed with different antiplatelet combinations. We found that, overall, up to 1 in 10 people taking antiplatelets (rising to 2 in 10 if also taking an anticoagulant such as warfarin or dabigatran) reported a bleed. Among patients treated with surgery or medication only, we compared aspirin only (which is a less potent therapy) with aspirin and clopidogrel (a more potent therapy). Among patients treated with stents, we compared aspirin and clopidogrel (less potent therapy) with aspirin and prasugrel or ticagrelor (more potent therapy). In all three populations, the more potent therapy increased the risk of bleeding by about one and a half times, but this was not offset by a reduced risk of having a subsequent heart attack. This may be explained by low adherence to the medication: between one-third and almost half of all patients did not adhere to their regimen, and non-adherence was generally higher among patients taking a more potent therapy. It may also be explained by bias inherent in the study, for example if the groups prescribed different antiplatelet regimens had different risks of having another heart attack. Nevertheless, the results show that doctors should be cautious about prescribing more potent antiplatelet therapy because it may increase serious bleeds without necessarily reducing the number of heart attacks.

Hospital resource utilization in a national cohort of functionally single ventricle patients undergoing surgical treatment.

Objective: The study objective was to provide a detailed overview of health resource use from birth to 18 years old for patients with functionally single ventricles and identify associated risk factors. Methods: All patients with functionally single ventricles treated between 2000 and 2017 in England and Wales were linked to hospital and outpatient records using data from the Linking AUdit and National datasets in Congenital HEart Services project. Hospital stay was described in yearly age intervals, and associated risk factors were explored using quantile regression. Results: A total of 3037 patients with functionally single ventricles were included, 1409 (46.3%) undergoing a Fontan procedure. During the first year of life, the median days spent in hospital was 60 (interquartile range, 37-102), mostly inpatient days, mirroring a mortality of 22.8%. This decreases to between 2 and 9 in-hospital days/year afterward. Between 2 and 18 years, most hospital days were outpatient, with a median of 1 to 5 days/year. Lower age at the first procedure, hypoplastic left heart syndrome/mitral atresia, unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect, preterm birth, congenital/acquired comorbidities, additional cardiac risk factors, and severity of illness markers were associated with fewer days at home and more intensive care unit days in the first year of life. Only markers of early severe illness were associated with fewer days at home in the first 6 months after the Fontan procedure. Conclusions: Hospital resource use in functionally single ventricle cases is not uniform, decreasing 10-fold during adolescence compared with the first year of life. There are subsets of patients with worse outcomes during their first year of life or with persistently high hospital use throughout their childhood, which could be the target of future research.

Efficacy and safety of carbon dioxide insufflation for brain protection for patients undergoing planned left-sided open heart valve surgery: protocol for a multicentre, placebo-controlled, blinded, randomised controlled trial (the CO2 Study).

INTRODUCTION: Brain injury is common following open heart valve surgery. Carbon dioxide insufflation (CDI) has been proposed to reduce the incidence of brain injury by reducing the number of air microemboli entering the bloodstream in surgery. The CO2 Study will evaluate the efficacy and safety of CDI in patients undergoing planned left-sided open heart valve surgery. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The CO2 Study is a multicentre, blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised controlled trial. Seven-hundred and four patients aged 50 years and over undergoing planned left-sided heart valve surgery will be recruited to the study, from at least eight UK National Health Service hospitals, and randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive CDI or medical air insufflation (placebo) in addition to standard de-airing. Insufflation will be delivered at a flow rate of 5 L/min from before the initiation of cardiopulmonary bypass until 10 min after cardiopulmonary bypass weaning. Participants will be followed up until 3 months post-surgery. The primary outcome is acute ischaemic brain injury within 10 days post-surgery based on new brain lesions identified with diffusion-weighted MRI or clinical evidence of permanent brain injury according to the current definition of stroke. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the East Midlands-Nottingham 2 Research Ethics Committee in June 2020 and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency in May 2020. All participants will provide written informed consent prior to undertaking any study assessments. Consent will be obtained by the principal investigator or a delegated member of the research team who has been trained in the study and undergone Good Clinical Practice training. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at national and international meetings. Study participants will be informed of results through study notifications and patient organisations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30671536.

Mitral repair versus replacement: 20-year outcome trends in the UK (2000-2019).

OBJECTIVES: Using a large national database, we sought to describe outcome trends in mitral valve surgery between 2000 and 2019. METHODS: The study cohort was split into mitral valve repair (MVr) or replacement, including all patients regardless of concomitant procedures. Patients were grouped by four-year admission periods into groups (A to E). The primary outcome was in hospital mortality and secondary outcomes were return to theatre, postoperative stroke and postoperative length of stay. We investigated trends over time in patient demographics, comorbidities, intraoperative characteristics and postoperative outcomes. We used a multivariable binary logistic regression model to assess the relationship between mortality and time. Cohorts were further stratified by sex and aetiology. RESULTS: Of the 63 000 patients in the study cohort, 31 644 had an MVr and 31 356 had a replacement. Significant demographic shifts were observed. Aetiology has shifted towards degenerative disease; endocarditis rates in MVr dropped initially but are now rising (period A = 6%, period C = 4%, period E = 6%; P < 0.001). The burden of comorbidities has increased over time. In the latest time period, women had lower repair rates (49% vs 67%, P < 0.001) and higher mortality rates when undergoing repair (3% vs 2%, P = 0.001) than men. Unadjusted postoperative mortality dropped in MVr (5% vs 2%, P < 0.001) and replacement (9% vs 7%, P = 0.015). Secondary outcomes have improved. Time period was an independent predictor for reduced mortality in both repair (odds ratio: 0.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.28-0.61, P < 0.001) and replacement (odds ratio: 0.50, 95% confidence interval: 0.41-0.61, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital mortality has dropped significantly over time for mitral valve surgery in the UK. MVr has become the more common procedure. Sex-based discrepancies in repair rates and mortality require further investigation. Endocarditis rates in MVS are rising.

Does melatonin administration reduce the incidence of postoperative delirium in adults? Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Postoperative delirium (POD) is common. It is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Many cases may be preventable and melatonin offers promise as a preventative agent. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence on the effect of melatonin in preventing POD. DESIGN: A systematic search of randomised controlled trials of melatonin in POD was run across multiple databases (EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO) and a clinical trials registry (ClinicalTrials.org) (1 January 1990 to 5 April 2022). Studies examining the effects of melatonin on POD incidence in adults are included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias 2 tool. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is POD incidence. Secondary outcomes are POD duration and length of hospital stay. Data synthesis was undertaken using a random-effects meta-analysis and presented using forest plots. A summary of methodology and outcome measures in included studies is also presented. RESULTS: Eleven studies, with 1244 patients from a range of surgical specialties were included. Seven studies used melatonin, in variable doses, and four used ramelteon. Eight different diagnostic tools were used to diagnose POD. Time points for assessment also varied. Six studies were assessed as low risk of bias and five as some concern. The combined OR of developing POD in the melatonin groups versus control was 0.41 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.80, p=0.01). CONCLUSION: This review found that melatonin may reduce the incidence of POD in adults undergoing surgery. However, included studies displayed inconsistency in their methodology and outcome reporting. Further work to determine the optimum regime for melatonin administration, along with consensus of how best to evaluate results, would be beneficial. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021285019.

Formal consensus study on surgery to replace the aortic valve in adults aged 18-60 years.

OBJECTIVE: There is uncertainty about surgical procedures for adult patients aged 18-60 years undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). Options include conventional AVR (mechanical, mAVR; tissue, tAVR), the pulmonary autograft (Ross) and aortic valve neocuspidisation (Ozaki). Transcatheter treatment may be an option for selected patients. We used formal consensus methodology to make recommendations about the suitability of each procedure. METHODS: A working group, supported by a patient advisory group, developed a list of clinical scenarios across seven domains (anatomy, presentation, cardiac/non-cardiac comorbidities, concurrent treatments, lifestyle, preferences). A consensus group of 12 clinicians rated the appropriateness of each surgical procedure for each scenario on a 9-point Likert scale on two separate occasions (before and after a 1-day meeting). RESULTS: There was a consensus that each procedure was appropriate (A) or inappropriate (I) for all clinical scenarios as follows: mAVR: total 76% (57% A, 19% I); tAVR: total 68% (68% A, 0% I); Ross: total 66% (39% A, 27% I); Ozaki: total 31% (3% A, 28% I). The remainder of percentages to 100% reflects the degree of uncertainty. There was a consensus that transcatheter aortic valve implantation is appropriate for 5 of 68 (7%) of all clinical scenarios (including frailty, prohibitive surgical risk and very limited life span). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based expert opinion emerging from a formal consensus process indicates that besides conventional AVR options, there is a high degree of certainty about the suitability of the Ross procedure in patients aged 18-60 years. Future clinical guidelines should include the option of the Ross procedure in aortic prosthetic valve selection.

Melatonin for the prevention of postoperative delirium in older adults: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Postoperative delirium (POD) is a major cause of morbidity, particularly in elderly patients. Melatonin has been suggested as a low-risk pharmacological intervention to help prevent POD. A previous systematic review found limited high-quality evidence to support the use of melatonin in the prevention of POD. Several further randomised studies have since been published. This systematic review aims to synthesise the evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) examining the effect of melatonin on the prevention of POD in older adults. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic search of RCTs of melatonin (any dose and formulation) in POD will be run across Embase, Medline, CINAHL and PsychInfo. RCTs published from January 1990 until the end of February 2022 and reporting outcomes for melatonin use to prevent POD in patients will be included. Screening of search results and data extraction from included articles will be performed by two independent reviewers. The primary outcome will be incidence of POD in older adults undergoing surgery. Secondary outcomes are delirium duration and length of hospital stay. The review will also describe the dosage, timing and administration regimes of melatonin therapy and as well as the scales and definitions used to describe POD. A registry review of ongoing trials will be also be performed. For the meta-analysis, data will be pooled using a random effects model to generate a forest plot and obtain an odds ratio (OR) for the incidence of POD. Results will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval is required. This review will be disseminated via peer-reviewed manuscript and conferences. The results will be used as the basis of work to optimise this intervention for future trials in surgical populations. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: This review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021285019).

Real-world bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and prescribed different combinations of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) in England: a population-based cohort study emulating a 'target trial'.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence and HRs for bleeding for different dual antiplatelet therapies (DAPT) in a real-world population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in England. DESIGN: A retrospective, population-based cohort study emulating a target randomised controlled trial (tRCT). DATA SOURCES: Linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). SETTING: Primary and secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Patients ≥18 years old with ACS undergoing emergency PCI. INTERVENTIONS: Aspirin and clopidogrel (AC, reference) versus aspirin and prasugrel (AP) or aspirin and ticagrelor (AT); AP evaluated only in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary: any bleeding up to 12 months after the index event (HES- or CPRD- recorded). Secondary: HES-recorded bleeding, CPRD-recorded bleeding, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, mortality from bleeding, myocardial infarction, stroke, additional coronary intervention and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). RESULTS: In ACS, the rates of any bleeding for AC and AT were 89 per 1000 person years and 134 per 1000 person years, respectively. In STEMI, rates for AC, AP and AT were 93 per 1000 person years, 138 per 1000 person years and 143 per 100 person years, respectively. In ACS, compared with AC, AT increased the hazard of any bleeding (HR: 1.47, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.82) but did not reduce MACCE (HR: 1.06, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.27). In STEMI, compared with AC, AP and AT increased the hazard of any bleeding (HR: 1.77, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.59 and HR: 1.50, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.05, respectively) but did not reduce MACCE (HR: 1.10, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.51 and HR: 1.21, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.51, respectively). Non-adherence to the prescribed DAPT regimen was 28% in AC (29% in STEMI only), 31% in AP (STEMI only) and 33% in AT (32% in STEMI only). CONCLUSIONS: In a real-world population with ACS, DAPT with ticagrelor or prasugrel are associated with increased bleeding compared with DAPT with clopidogrel. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN76607611.

Confounders and co-interventions identified in non-randomized studies of interventions.

OBJECTIVES: To identify potential confounders and co-interventions systematically to optimise control of confounding for three non-randomized studies of interventions (NRSI) designed to quantify bleeding in populations exposed to different dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review, interviews, and surveys with clinicians. We searched Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify randomized-controlled trials and cohort studies of DAPT interventions. Two researchers independently screened citations, identified eligible studies and extracted data. We conducted individual semi-structured interviews with six cardiologists and six cardiac surgeons to elicit factors clinicians consider when they prescribe DAPT. We administered two online surveys for members of professional cardiology and cardiac surgery organisations. RESULTS: We screened 2,544 records, identified 322 eligible studies, and extracted data from 47. We identified 10 co-interventions and 70 potential confounders: review 31 (91%); interviews 19 (56%); surveys 31 (91%). 16/34 (47%) were identified by all three methods while, 3/34 (9%) were picked up by one method only. CONCLUSION: The review identified the majority of factors, but the interviews identified hard-to-measure factors such as perceived patient adherence and local prescribing culture. The methods could, in principle, be widely applied when designing or reviewing non-randomized studies of interventions (NRSI).

Pre-admission interventions (prehabilitation) to improve outcome after major elective surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the benefits and harms of pre-admission interventions (prehabilitation) on postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing major elective surgery. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (published or unpublished). We searched Medline, Embase, CENTRAL, DARE, HTA and NHS EED, The Cochrane Library, CINAHL, PsychINFO and ISI Web of Science (June 2020). SETTING: Secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (≥18 years) undergoing major elective surgery (curative or palliative). INTERVENTIONS: Any intervention administered in the preoperative period with the aim of improving postoperative outcomes. OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were 30-day mortality, hospital length of stay (LoS) and postoperative complications. Secondary outcomes included LoS in intensive care unit or high dependency unit, perioperative morbidity, hospital readmission, postoperative pain, heath-related quality of life, outcomes specific to the intervention, intervention-specific adverse events and resource use. REVIEW METHODS: Two authors independently extracted data from eligible RCTs and assessed risk of bias and the certainty of evidence using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to pool data across trials. RESULTS: 178 RCTs including eight types of intervention were included. Inspiratory muscle training (IMT), immunonutrition and multimodal interventions reduced hospital LoS (mean difference vs usual care: -1.81 days, 95% CI -2.31 to -1.31; -2.11 days, 95% CI -3.07 to -1.15; -1.67 days, 95% CI -2.31 to -1.03, respectively). Immunonutrition reduced infective complications (risk ratio (RR) 0.64 95% CI 0.40 to 1.01) and IMT, and exercise reduced postoperative pulmonary complications (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.80, and RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.75, respectively). Smoking cessation interventions reduced wound infections (RR 0.28, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.64). CONCLUSIONS: Some prehabilitation interventions may reduce postoperative LoS and complications but the quality of the evidence was low. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42015019191.

Disparity in clinical outcomes after cardiac surgery between private and public (NHS) payers in England.

BACKGROUND: There is little known about how payer status impacts clinical outcomes in a universal single-payer system such as the UK National Health Service (NHS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between payer status (private or public) and clinical outcomes following cardiac surgery from NHS providers in England. METHODS: The National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit (NACSA) registry was interrogated for patients who underwent adult cardiac surgery in England from 2009 to 2018. Information on socioeconomic status were provided by linkage with the Iteration of the English Indices of Deprivation (IoD). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included incidence of in-hospital postoperative cerebrovascular accident (CVA), renal dialysis, sternal wound infection, and re-exploration. To assess whether payer status was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality, binomial generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were fitted along with 17 items forming the EuroSCORE and the IoD domains. FINDINGS: The final sample consisted of 280,209 patients who underwent surgery in 31 NHS hospitals in England from 2009 to 2018. Of them, 5,967 (2.1%) and 274,242 (97.9%) were private and NHS payers respectively. Private payer status was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 0.79; 95%CI 0.65 - 0.97;P = 0.026), CVA (OR 0.77; 95%CI 0.60 - 0.99; P = 0.039), need for re-exploration (OR 0.84; 95%CI 0.72 - 0.97; P = 0.017) and with non-significant lower risk of dialysis (OR 0.84; 95%CI 0.69 - 1.02; P = 0.074). Private payer status was found to be independently associated with lower risk of in-hospital mortality in the elective subgroup (OR 0.76; 95%CI 0.61 - 0.96; P = 0.020) but not in the non-elective subgroup (OR 1.01; 95%CI 0.64 - 1.58; P = 0.976). INTERPRETATION: In conclusion, using a national database, we have found evidence of significant beneficial effect of payer status on hospital outcomes following cardiac surgery in favour of private payers regardless their socioeconomic factors.

The IDEAL Reporting Guidelines: A Delphi Consensus Statement Stage Specific Recommendations for Reporting the Evaluation of Surgical Innovation.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to define reporting standards for IDEAL format studies. BACKGROUND: The IDEAL Framework and Recommendations establish an integrated pathway for evaluation of new surgical techniques and complex therapeutic technologies. However guidance on implementation has been incomplete, and incorrect use is commonly seen. We describe the consensus development of reporting guidelines for the IDEAL stages, and plans for their dissemination and evaluation. METHODS: Using the EQUATOR Network recommendations, participants with knowledge of IDEAL were surveyed to determine which IDEAL stages needed reporting guidelines. Draft checklists for stages 1, 2a, 2b, and 4 were subsequently developed by 3 researchers (N.B., A.H., P.M.), and revised through a 2-round Delphi consensus process. A final consensus teleconference resolved outstanding disagreements and clarified wording for checklist items. RESULTS: Sixty-one participants completed the initial survey, a clear majority indicating that new reporting guidelines were needed for IDEAL Stage 1 (69.5%), Stage 2a (78%), Stage 2b (74.6%), and Stage 4 (66%). A proposed set of checklists was modified by survey participants in 2 online Delphi rounds (n = 54 and n = 47, respectively), resulting in a penultimate checklist for each stage. Fourteen expert working group members finalized the checklist items and successfully resolved any outstanding areas without agreement on a consensus call. CONCLUSIONS: Participants familiar with IDEAL called for reporting guidelines for studies in all IDEAL stages except stage 3. The checklists developed have the potential to improve standards of reporting and thereby advance the quality of research on surgery and complex interventions and technologies, but require further evaluation in use.

Patient perspectives of nuisance bleeding and adherence to dual antiplatelet therapy: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the experiences of patients with dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) and nuisance bleeding, and their perspectives of the impact of nuisance bleeding on medication adherence and information seeking. METHODS: We conducted focus groups with patients who had undergone percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass graft and conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients. Two focus groups were with patients at the early stages of treatment (0-3 months), and two with patients coming to the end of treatment (9-12 months). Group discussions were audio recorded, and recordings were transcribed verbatim, anonymised and analysed using framework analysis. FINDINGS: Nine patients taking DAPT for up to 3 months, and 12 taking DAPT between 9 and 12 months participated in the focus groups. We found that: (1) participants adhered to treatment when they believed DAPT was important to health outcomes; (2) those who experienced nuisance bleeding reported symptoms to be mild and manageable; (3) participants' and their family's understanding of DAPT risks and benefits, and their ability to manage symptoms, influenced perspectives of and experiences with adherence. Factors influencing DAPT knowledge included access to medication counselling, engaging with information communicated during medication counselling, and access to timely, relevant and expert information and advice after discharge from hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Positive attitudes towards adherence were facilitated by knowledge and understanding of DAPT and confidence in dealing with symptoms caused by DAPT, but hindered by lack of opportunities to access relevant, timely and appropriate medication counselling. Education interventions should aim to support medication literacy through family-centred approaches and involve patients and families at all stages of intervention design and evaluation.

Effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and safety of gabapentin versus placebo as an adjunct to multimodal pain regimens in surgical patients: protocol of a placebo controlled randomised controlled trial with blinding (GAP study).

INTRODUCTION: Gabapentin is an antiepileptic drug currently licensed to treat epilepsy and neuropathic pain but has been used off-label to treat acute postoperative pain. The GAP study will compare the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and safety of gabapentin as an adjunct to standard multimodal analgesia versus placebo for the management of pain after major surgery. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The GAP study is a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in patients aged 18 years and over, undergoing different types of major surgery (cardiac, thoracic or abdominal). Patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either gabapentin (600 mg just before surgery and 600 mg/day for 2 days after surgery) or placebo in addition to usual pain management for each type of surgery. Patients will be followed up daily until hospital discharge and then at 4 weeks and 4 months after surgery. The primary outcome is length of hospital stay following surgery. Secondary outcomes include pain, total opioid use, adverse health events, health related quality of life and costs. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee . Findings will be shared with participating hospitals and disseminated to the academic community through peer-reviewed publications and presentation at national and international meetings. Patients will be informed of the results through patient organisations and participant newsletters. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN63614165.